Ramifications of Kirill's "Holy War" Declaration
Executive summary
Russian Patriarch Kirill declared a “Holy War” on Ukraine.
The step taken by the ROC suggests that Putin is likely to announce a “state of war” that would lead to general mobilisation.
The consequences for the Russian Orthodox Church will be costly, leading to the disintegration of its structures in the near-abroad.
Met. Onufry’s church (the Ukrainian Orthodox Church) will be impacted the most.
Politically, this may re-open discussions in Brussels and Washington about placing Kirill under sanctions.
On 27 March 2024, Patriarch Kirill chaired a meeting of the World Russian People’s Council (WRPC), an annual forum for the exchange of ideas about the future of Russia. Established in 1993 by the Russian Orthodox Church, the WRPC unites the Russian church with prominent state and civil society representatives, including academics and other prominent figures of Russian society. The ROC takes a central position in this body.
This year’s congress took place at Moscow's Cathedral of Christ the Saviour, where a declaration under the chairmanship of Patriarch Kirill on the Russian World was adopted in which, as regards Ukraine, “the special military operation from a spiritual and moral point of view” has been upgraded to a Holy War (Священной войной).
Patriarch Kirill’s characterisation of Putin’s war in Ukraine as holy is the most dangerous escalation of the religious aspects of the war by far, which will have wide consequences that could affect inter-Orthodox relations for years to come.
Adopting the scandalous declaration is a culmination of ROC’s justifications for and blessings of the war. Repackaging the war in a new highly militaristic format (Holy War) is supposed to mobilise societal support for Putin’s actions and represents a step towards Putin’s own declaration of war and possible general mobilisation. At the moment, the Russian leadership calls the invasion of Ukraine a special military operation. While appeasing Putin, Kirill’s own actions will backfire as this step will cause irreparable damage to the ROC structures in its near abroad (the Baltics, Ukraine, and Moldova).
The meeting of the WRPC came a few days after the terrorist attack on 22 March at the Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow, with a death toll of 144 people. Despite advance intelligence warnings about the attack from the US and the claimed responsibility for the horrendous attack by ISIS, Putin is working hard to associate Ukraine with the attack. The dismissal of Western intelligence warnings about the terror attack and the scale of the attack could have affected Putin’s political standing due to the failure to stop the attack. Kirill’s Holy War declaration, therefore, successfully interrupts the political fallout from the terrorist attack, making Ukraine again the focus and letting Putin off the hook for the terrorist attack in Moscow.
Kirill’s declaration describes the “special military operation” as a “new stage of the national liberation struggle of the Russian people against the criminal Kyiv regime and the collective West…” It goes on to claim that once the war is over, “the entire territory of modern Ukraine should enter the zone of exclusive influence of Russia” and that any political force of government that is perceived hostile to Russia would not be allowed to exist. The declaration details and further operationalises the concept of the Russian World, outlining the WRPC views of how the Russian state should promote it. It underlines that the boundaries of the Russian world as a “spiritual, cultural and civilisational phenomenon are significantly wider than the state borders of both the current Russian Federation and the historical Russia.”
Ramifications
The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (formerly known as UOC-MP) expressly reacted to this declaration, making it clear that it is distancing itself from Patriarch Kirill. The reaction and condemnation of Patriarch Kirill are probably its strongest yet. In a statement, the church led by Met. Onufry calls out the ROC for “providing ideological support and justification for Russia’s military aggression and intervention in Ukraine” and says that the above-mentioned declaration is not compatible with Gospel teaching.
Despite the punchy reaction coming from the UOC, Patriarch Kirill did irreparable damage to the Ukrainian church with his actions on 27 March. Once a fighter and its protector, the declaration corners Met. Onufry and leaves him no chance to fight back. Due to the subordination of the UOC to the Russian church, Ukrainian lawmakers have been working on a law (No. 8371) that would, in effect, ban the church from operating in Ukraine unless it completely severs relations with Moscow. The bill's second reading is already in motion and is expected to be adopted soon. President Zelensky doesn’t seem to be facing a great level of domestic opposition to this move, as the polls suggest large support for this new piece of legislation. One would, therefore, assume that Patriarch Kirill’s declaration of a holy war on Ukraine would only embolden the political establishment in Kyiv and the Ukrainian public in their determination to completely sever links between the Ukrainian and the Russian church. The declaration will also increase the chances of intra-religious rivalries and conflicts.
ROC’s churches across the Baltics will also face additional scrutiny from security and intelligence services as Kirill’s conduct will inject fresh fear and uneasiness among the political elites in the Baltics, as well as some of the Nordic countries. The Moscow-affiliated churches have been on the radar of the Baltic security services since the Russian aggression started in 2022. Several bishops of the Estonian Orthodox Church (affiliated with the ROC) were called on Monday by Estonia’s Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets to be questioned and explain Kirill’s declaration. In February, authorities in Tallinn expelled the Estonian Orthodox Church leader for undermining the country’s security, leaving the church in limbo. In Lithuania, the leadership has opened the doors for the Ecumenical Patriarchate’s establishment of an exarchate as a counterweight to the Lithuanian Orthodox Church. 1Lastly, the situation in Moldova, where the Metropolis of Bessarabia is expanding at the expense of the ROC-affiliated Moldovan Orthodox Church, will only gain in intensity. The conduct of Patriarch Kirill in blessing the war has already become the reason for conflicting tensions between the two churches.
Within the Orthodox Church, Kirill’s call for holy war might be the last straw for some churches that are already on bad terms with the Russian church, leading to increased calls for holding the Moscow Patriarch accountable. The Ecumenical Patriarch has repeatedly condemned ROC’s pro-war positions over the years. Due to the extreme nature of the declaration, the discussions about holding Kirill accountable by resorting to the Pentarchy institute – an ancient institution comprised of the five oldest patriarchates (now four – without Rome, being Constantinople, Alexandria, Antioch, and Jerusalem) will gain momentum. This would allow for universal condemnation of those in ROC, including Kirill, for propagandising the Russian World doctrine.
While the revival of this ancient institution is still somewhat tricky because of the leverage the Russian state and church have over the Antioch church and, to an extent, the Patriarchate of Jerusalem, it is likely that other forms of condemnation will emerge. At the national level, some churches may decide independently to assess the recent declaration and the Russian world preaching from an Orthodox teaching perspective.
At the same time, calls and initiatives from informal groups and networks of theologians and academics, believers, and laity are likely to grow. One such initiative comes from the Orthodox Christian Studies Centre at Fordham University, launched in February and signed by almost four hundred people. It calls for the establishment of an “international task force dedicated to holding accountable, through sincere and impartial analysis, those bishops, priests, and laity within the Russian Orthodox Church whose statements, testimonials, sermons, communications, and fabrications have sanctioned and bestowed divine approval upon violence, war, and aggression against the people of Ukraine.”
Last but not least, politically, this may reopen the talks at EU level about placing Kirill on the EU-wide sanctions list. He escaped sanctions in 2022 thanks to Hungary, which vetoed the move, citing religious freedom concerns. However, this did not stop individual EU member states from including Kirill on their national sanctions list (Czechia, Estonia, and Lithuania are a few). Similarly, the recent conduct by Kirill might be exactly what it takes for US lawmakers to open a discussion about sanctioning Kirill, something that the Americans have been avoiding so far.
The effects of the Holy War declaration are likely to be felt imminently in ROC’s near-abroad space. The Estonian authorities have already talked to the ROC-affiliated Estonian Orthodox Church representatives, examining their church’s reception of Kirill’s declaration. The hardest hit will be to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which is on its last legs. It seems that Patriarch Kirill has willingly decided to let it go, choosing to help Putin’s war machinery instead. Kirill is now a mere observer of the ROC’s canonical territory falling into pieces.
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Till next week,
Andreja
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